The iPad Pro sold more than the Microsoft Surface family. That’s it, game over, let’s go home to Redmond. At least that’s how many read the IDC report on tablet market sales released last week.
I find it amusing that the iPad Pro is being declared the winner simply because of the volume of sales. If there’s one thing that Apple has made clear, it’s that there are other factors that can determine success in place of the number of units shifted. Android dominates the smartphone market share, but with Apple claiming the lion’s share of the profits you can make a strong argument that the iPhone ‘wins’ the smartphone market.
Which is why the question of ‘is the Microsoft Surface range a winning family of devices?’ is a better question than ‘did it beat the iPad?’. The answer of course is ‘not yet,’ but it’s much closer to personal success than many imagine.
Microsoft Surface Pro 4 (image: Ewan Spence
IDC has estimated that sales across the Surface range were 1.6 million for the fourth calendar quarter. That compares to the two million sales of the iPad Pro, which had a limited supply of units for a portion of the quarter.
Placing the iPad Pro and the Surface Pro units next to each other and it’s clear that even though they have the same form factor they are targeted at different markets. The iPad Pro is a ‘bigger iOS’ device while the Surface Pro is a ‘smaller Windows 10′ device. The extra power and functionality in the Surface Pro makes it a ‘full’ computer that can be a tablet when you need it, compared to the iPad Pro which is a very big tablet and uses mobile focussed software to get the job done. For many people that’s enough, but it’s that final five percent of flexibility that Apple’s device is missing that lifts the Surface Pro towards something that is more usable and functional.
For me this is the one area withe the Surface Pro does win out. The capability and the promise means that the Surface Pro will do everything I need in a mobile device, the iPad Pro (and the rest of the iPad range, and the army of Android tablets) are lacking in that functionality.
Microsoft Surface Pro 4 (image: Ewan Spence)
In terms of branding the iPad Pro has a huge advantage in being called an iPad and coming under the Apple brand. Although the cracks are beginning to show in Apple’s PR and Marketing abilities (see the recent furore over Error 53, and the triage of interviews around the release of the iPhone Smart Battery Case) much of the success of the iPad Pro should be put down to the strong brand awareness and high levels of customer satisfaction present in the Apple ecosystem. If you were going to take a chance on a large tablet device, Apple was always going to be the safe option.
The iPad Pro was an easy brand extension for Apple. Microsoft’s Surface does not have that level of love, but it is getting there. After a shaky start with Windows RT, underpowered ‘mobile’ versions of the hardware, and heavier Pro machines Surface is building up its own reputation with engineering and design skills, new technologies, and presents a viable alternative for consumers.
It’s also being used to showcase Windows 10. Microsoft’s operating system is focused on a great software experience and to bring people into the cloud, but having it run on hardware that is the stylish equal of the competition is an important step.
Microsoft has the use case for the Surface devices well-defined, it has great design and solid hardware, and it has a vision of software that is easily understood. All of that should add up to a personal victory. Unfortunately Surface has some hardware issues, and the double-edged sword that is Windows 10.
The Surface hardware is not bullet proof. If there’s one thing that my time with the Surface Pro 4 has shown, is that it likes to be switched off and on again. A lot. The display drivers have been buggy since the launch. A number of fixes have been released through Microsoft’s rolling updates to Windows 10 and the driver software is in better shape, but it’s not perfect. That the problems are being addressed is a good thing, but a better course of action would be to not have them present in the first public release. Lots of niggles around the software have taken the shine of the launch of the Surface Pro 4 and the Surface Book. There’s still a feeling that Microsoft is in the process of ‘getting it right’ and that will happen in the future – right now the hardware is ‘mostly there’ and consumers will have to put up with a few workarounds.
For a technology company that’s not a great place to be, but the Surface range is improving, and a perception that ‘we can fix this’ is positive. But the quality control around the hardware is not yet at the point where I would say it is ‘winning’.
Microsoft Surface 3 (Image: Ewan Spence)
And then there’s Windows 10. Microsoft is incredibly aggressive in moving existing users to Windows 10, and those who are there are finding that its default action is to share data with Microsoft, that it is difficult to stop the over-the-air updates, and it relies heavily on cloud-based services. Windows 10 is not an easy sell to the public. When you add in the knee-jerk reaction of many to ‘Windows’ the Surface range is not going to attract the attention of the online geekerati. Building up a strong market presence of hardware and software is going to take a lot of outreach to even begin to gain the same level of respect as OSX and iOS.
Microsoft’s focus right now is on software, and specifically the cloud. Windows 10 is major gateway to the cloud, and the Surface devices are a gateway to Windows 10. They are not on the front line but are one of the most visible elements of the current ecosystem.
The Surface family has not done enough to claim any comprehensive victory, but it has a number of solid wins that can be used to drive the hardware platform forward. It has navigated through the failures of Windows RT and the hardware issues of the past. While there is a long road ahead of the Surface family, the path is clear.
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